Tuesday, December 1, 2009

India GDP Q2

Spectacular numbers. The key to this growth is the services industry numbers, which need to be checked out. In particular, the 'Social Spending' numbers that the govt includes as part of its GDP growth, is suspect. Suspect not because it does not exist but because it is counted twice. The money spent by the Government on Schemes like NREGA go to individuals, who spend it on goods and services. We are counting input and output all over again!
Albeit this small cover up, the numbers have caught most freaking 'economists' with their pants down. Shows the hazards of trying to second guess the government statistical division.
Now, with this high growth, the central bank is less tempted to tinker with its liberal policy (more write offs, lax accounting policies, easy money etc).
With the next two quarters also likely to show decent numbers, except agri, which actually should be negative for the full year, India could have a GDP growth in excess of 6.5% for FY 2009-10.
Shows the strength of the domestic consumer, who is neither shy nor reluctant.

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