Stock Markets are not for everyone- Small boys have to stay away

Keeping one’s faith in equities as an asset class is perhaps very tough. With the markets virtually panicking and not going anywhere except down, people seem to be deserting equities. The investor who has started investing within the last decade, has made money in real estate and gold and not done very well in equities. Equity returns are a function of three things- Patience, effort and a bit of luck. Patience is important because equity returns tend to be extremely volatile in the short term. Over longer term, I can expect share prices to reflect the underlying company performance. Effort is required in identifying the share/s. Here it is important to distinguish between a range of characteristics that include longevity of the business, the profitability, the promoters and the nature of the business. In India we clearly see that given the growing aspirations, those companies that make and supply consumer products (especially the FMCG) are best positioned. There are services sector that grow, but are subject to intense competition as well as regulatory issues. The manufacturing and infrastructure sectors are reflective of the state of the economy and are characterised by hope and despair. So when constructing a portfolio, it is important to understand what we are buying and what kind of volatility are we going to be subjected to solely on account of company performance. We may not be able to protect ourselves against market forces but surely we can try our best to protect ourselves against the quality we pick. This effort is something people shy away from. Assuming that we are not comfortable with numbers and its analyses, surely we can spend some time in understanding the business of the company? So maybe we end up with a handful of companies we understand in terms of their longevity. Once we reach that stage, our next effort is to protect ourselves against market forces. This is best done by adopting a SIP route for the individual stock that we like. We keep buying a few shares every month for ten to twenty years. Where we all err is in buying in bulk simply because we see others making quick money. No one tells you about the losses. Investing in equities is successful only when you buy what you like at a price that you think is right. There should be no compulsion for an individual to be fully invested. Then we become like the fund manager who says that he will be fully invested even if he knows that the markets are expensive. An individual investor has an edge, if he does his homework. Luck is a factor that we cannot ignore. If we started our investment habit in 1995 or 1996, we have made money. If we started in 2000 or 2008 we have lost money. Timing does make a difference, if we are not a regular investor through an SIP route. We also need luck to make sure that the company we choose is not hit by fraud. We try and minimise it by knowing about the promoters, but there are no guarantees on that. We see a range of mutual funds with similar objectives, but the returns vary very widely. Again, we should be lucky to choose the winner because historical records seldom sustain. Warren Buffet famously states that he likes to ‘own’ businesses that are first class and will do well over time, feeding on growing needs of the consumer. He also wants the business to be easy to understand. He also says that if it is not possible to buy entire businesses, he would like to be part of that by owning shares. That is what we are doing when we buy shares. We are letting our money ride on someone’s ability to manage a business well. The fly in the ointment is that the price of the share is subject to so many market forces. As an investor, we have two options to get in. One is by adopting the SIP route for a period of ten to fifteen years. The other is to be number savvy and wait for timing when the share price is really attractive or below what an analyst would call as ‘fair value’. Essentially what it means is that at this point you expect the reward (of higher prices) to outweigh the risk (of fall in prices). The worst is to time investments with market sentiments. That way, only losses accrue to you. R. Balakrishnan (balakrishnanr@gmail.com) 24th June 2013

Of Alternate Assets and Other Investment Exotica

INVESTMENT EXOTICA Today, Gold and real estate have become virtual essentials in every man’s asset creation. So much so, that these two asset classes could perhaps turn out to be the biggest bubbles over time. We all presume that we will be the smart fellow, and will bail out before the others. However, mass following, inflation and the action of governments (constant bail outs and subsidies by printing more money) ensures that these assets keep inflating in value. It is very likely that lack of faith in sovereign, inflationary pressures and crowd behaviour could keep these asset classes on the high for times to come. Let us take gold. A metal, with no intrinsic use or value, has become a synonym for wealth due to purely emotional or sentimental reasons. And in the frenzy of speculative hoarding, it has virtually become a self fulfilling prophecy. If we take the pure extraction cost, it is well under US $ 800 per ounce. However, it has become a store of value and is driven by factors like the strength of the dollar, the degree of likelihood of an alternative to the dollar as a ‘safe haven’, Indian and Chinese household fetish for the yellow metal and the speculative forces of hedge funds and commodity funds. The other thing that draws Indians to gold is history and tradition. Apart from Gold and real estate, there are various asset classes which get clubbed under ‘alternative’ assets. These include commodities, currencies, ‘art’, ‘antiques’ and every other exotic item that the world collects. Most of them derive value only because more than one person has a fascination for it. Take for instance, stamp or coin collecting. Since this is a passion with quite a few people, there is some value because someone is willing to pay a price for acquiring it. The one thing to note is that these ‘alternate’ assets do not follow any predictive valuation model. It is perception and a function of demand, supply and hype. Typically, in good years, when there is a lot of money flowing around, the demand for ‘exotic’ assets goes up. In poor years, there is a likelihood of some holders wanting to exit. You cannot value these assets except look for references and prices at auctions of similar items. These asset classes are for the ‘rich’. People who have so much money, that they already own considerable quantum of traditional assets like property, shares etc., It would be foolish if someone were to directly get in to this asset class without having put money in to the safer and liquid asset classes. When good times roll, many of the exotics will be packaged together under the umbrella of “Portfolio Management Schemes”. There was an ‘Art” fund that was launched in 2006, which collected more than Rs.100 crores. It was supposed be a fund focused on buying, holding and selling paintings (of the art kind). It had a three year lock in period. Alas, most of the people who went in lost money. The problem is that art is a dicey investment. A new artist will command value only after twenty plus years! Established artists or old masters command fancy prices. So, unless you are passionate about it, investing in art makes absolutely no sense. Exotic investments are for those people who cannot complete a total count of their wealth at any given point of time! The key factor is that allocation in to these exotic assets should be in consonance with your total wealth as well as the appetite for risk. If one is worried about prices and liquidity of what lies in the wealth basket, obviously these asset classes are not for you. Exotic assets may fetch returns over long holding periods. Often, they give returns only when handed over from one generation to the next. That is the patience one should have, if you want to enter. Liquidity comes from a limited circle of investors with similar appetite. Another thing to note in these exotic asset classes is that if one wants to buy, happy times are not the best ones. In an environment where everyone is prosperous, these asset classes tend to show a lot of demand and prices remain high. In a weak economic environment, if one has the money, these asset classes can be picked up at lower prices. With bankers struggling to find new ideas for packaging and selling to the rich, we will see more and more investment ‘packages’ on offer. Understand the risk in the asset. And understand yourself. Are you willing to bear the risk? Is there liquidity? Who can I sell it to? Ask as many questions as possible and then take the plunge.

Investment Fables- The Hare and the Tortoise

THE HARE AND THE TORTOISE There is a delightful movie named “Katha” that was directed by Ms Sai Paranjpe and released in 1983. It is a modern day retelling of the old fable of the Hare and the Tortoise. In the movie, the Hare wins. The tortoise keeps going at a steady pace and the hare has its fun and games and still manages to win the race. It is like retelling the story of the Ant and the Grasshopper and the Ant coming out second best. What relevance does it have to us as an investor? I often wonder, looking at fortunes that have been made and lost, as to if the person really followed a well articulated strategy or was he simply lucky in terms of what he picked, where he was and market timing etc. Often, I find that a systematic approach has given modest to below average results. More often than not, most investors who have had brilliant success were also the beneficiaries of being in the right place at the right time. However, the key to consistently being lucky was the ability to understand risks and at all times get a sense of circumstances. If we take properties, you may perhaps understand what timing is all about. Often, we see property prices going up manifold in a short span of a couple of years and then stagnating for five to ten years. So, the like or dislike of property stems from when you got in and when you got out. In some cases it is also a case of did you get out at all? And we have seen properties behaving very disparately. In Chennai, I know of people whose property prices have gone up six fold in less than ten years and some whose property is not saleable even at the price that they bought, ten years ago. Was one cleverer than the other? Similarly, for every success story of multi-baggers in mid cap stock investing, there must be at least nine stories where someone’s investment became as close to zero or gave negative returns over time. However, only the success stories go round and the failures are never talked about. And each one of us have our own stories of what opportunities we missed, that in hindsight make us look like fools. At the time a company like Infosys was listed, for every believer there were more than ten who did not. Or it was a question of being in the right place at the right time. Those who got shares of a Colgate or a SKF at the time of FERA dilution (1974) and holding on to the shares, have seen their wealth multiply thousands of times. The same stocks, if one bought much later, did not give much returns. PSU stocks are equally hated and liked. If you were lucky to have bought the shares when the shares were just listed and languishing in the mid nineties to early 2000s, you made a lot of money. Many PSU Bank shares were at close to or below their ‘par’ value. However, if you got in the last few years, you probably lost money or just managed to keep your principal intact. For every investment, whether you used a SIP or a direct investment route, the judgement of timing and some luck are essential ingredients. I always feel that whilst one can use skills to choose what to buy when it comes to stock, no one has a fail safe method that will help choose the time and price. There are charts and technical analyses, but I believe that they are as chancy as a toss of a coin. That is what keeps the industry going. No perfect answers. If you were a fan of the dot com bubble, you would either have made a fortune or lost one, depending on where you placed your bets and when you walked out of the casino after encashment. Similarly, in mid caps where I did theme based buying (land bank of old mills etc), a couple of them gave me big returns and the rest just bombed or vanished. At the point of analyses, all of them were equally bad and the bets were uniformly placed. Just a matter of luck that the greater fool theory worked in two and failed in eight instances. Someone who tracked me and happened to pick one of the two winners made very big money, many who picked up one or two of the eight, lost all and on the average, I made it fine. Better than the market, but not spectacular. I know if I pick up high quality stocks where the companies will continue to do well with reasonable profits over the next ten years or so, my downside is limited. However, if these stocks are well discovered and talked about, the prices are bound to be high at the entry point and my returns will be nothing to write home about. Yes, I will sleep peacefully, with perhaps a minimal risk of loss of capital, but nothing spectacular to look forward to. For that, I have to get in on the ground floor before someone else does and place my bets. Gold is a classic case of luck and timing. If we did some rational analysis, we will not consider investing in gold at all. I would rather invest in copper or aluminium since these metals have some use and value. Gold is purely for jewellery and value is based on fear and the strength of the rupee against the dollar. The last twelve years saw an unprecedented bull run in gold. Your experience depends on when you got in and got out. Skill and knowledge would have kept you out of gold altogether. If you want to beat the market, you have to be either lucky with direct equities or brilliant at timing. If you are in mutual funds, you will average out. If you are in theme funds, your luck of timing would decide the returns. If you take an index ETF you will be in line with the market. Some diversified funds have comfortably beaten the market so again your choices expand. In choosing a mutual fund, you are forced to fall back on past performance, which is a pointless exercise. Rather choose a good high quality fund house and expect average to above average returns as compared to its peers. In our search to preserve capital and create wealth, our search for avenues that will help us to beat inflation demands a lot of thought and effort. Simply believing in homilies like “equities beat inflation” or saying about land that “they don’t make more land” etc is pointless. We have to spend time understanding what each asset class can do. How do prices behave and what in general impact prices of asset classes. We can never perfect it the level of predicting or forecasting individual stock or land prices, but we will go in with our eyes open. This means having to spend time and effort in studying the assets that our money will buy into. Whilst it is not possible for most of us to go in to finer details, it will be a good starting point to ask “what can go wrong with the investment?”. Once we understand all (or at least most of them) the risks, then we are better equipped to handle our money. Yes, sometimes we could get lucky like the ‘hare’ in Katha. Generally, the tortoise lives longer and wins the big races. We will make better investors if we focus more on understanding where we stand to lose rather than pick winners in 100 meter races every day. The harder one works at it, there is more likelihood of getting luckier. The key to spotting opportunities lies in understanding risks. Without understanding risks, we come down to a throw of the dice.

Fixed Deposits could get stuck forever- Some Pointers if You have to

People losing money through Fixed Deposits keep happening at an alarming rate. So thought it would be useful to bring home some pointers.' Fixed Deposits with companies have always been an avenue for savers. It is essentially an instrument of ‘trust’. You place your money for periods ranging from six months to five years. Interest is paid quarterly, half yearly, annually or compounded and paid with principal, at maturity. I have also seen people splitting their deposits in to chunks of Rs.45,000/- and put it in to many companies, to escape the TDS net. In doing so, they end up putting money in to high risk areas and the need to follow up with many companies for interest, repayment etc. Most often, we do not do any homework about which company we give it to. We either go by broker recommendation or by our perception of the company or on the basis of interest rate offered. Fixed Deposits with companies are one of the riskiest investments. There are hundreds of companies where people lost money due to default. Leasing companies in the eighties were amongst the biggest to default. Unlike any other borrowing by a company, Fixed Deposits are not regulated or vouched for by anyone. The law simply allows every public limited company to raise money from the public. This is as good as permitting them to carry on banking. There is no security or any guarantee provided by anyone. In the event the company goes in to liquidation, the Fixed Deposit holder is the last in queue. However, FDs do offer the highest rate of interest as compared to other forms of investments. Perhaps they offer the only returns that help you to battle inflation. If inflation is at ten percent, a bank fixed deposit that gives you eight percent or nine percent means that you actually erode your purchasing power. The risk that we assume is that in a company FD, we may lose the amount invested if we choose without thought and homework. Just pause to think. Why is a company raising money through this route? Surely it must be due to reasons of poor credit standing or bankers’ reluctance to lend them more money. There is one class of companies that raise FDs on a regular basis from the public. They are NBFCs and Housing Finance Companies. Here the key issue is that whilst you put in your money for one to three years, they may be lending for longer tenures. In essence, unless they keep finding new investors on a regular basis, they will have problems of finding money to repay. If the Fixed Deposit tap were to be suddenly turned off, the NBFCs and Housing Finance Companies with less than high reputation or credit standing will be hard put to repay. That is what happened to the leasing companies in the eighties. Only a handful survived. If you have to invest in Fixed Deposits, look at the following: i) A credit rating that is at least of AA (Double AA) level, signifying “High Credit”quality. And ideally they must have this rating from a minimum of two well known rating agencies. ii) Keep the duration to one year ideally, ask for repayment and then reinvest. If the credit rating is the highest (AAA or Triple A) from two agencies, then you could consider a longer duration. iii) Stick to companies that can service your investments in the city you live in. That makes it easier to follow up in case of need. iv) Do not get tempted by higher returns or incentives that may be offered. If someone is offering a high rate of interest, surely the risk is very high. v) If there is a choice between ‘listed’ debentures and fixed deposits, opt for the debentures. Presently, on listed debentures, there is no TDS. Listed debentures can be bought through a broker. vi) Never go in for automatic renewal of deposits. Take the repayment and then re-invest, if required. This will ensure that you check the repayment systems also. vii) Be very sure that you can afford to wait for the maturity period. Whilst some companies may offer premature withdrawals, it is better to be safe than sorry. viii) Avoid new companies or small sized companies. Go for companies with ten to fifteen years of standing and reputation in the industry. ix) Check on the internet for any news about the company that may warn you for any signs of trouble. Google is a fantastic resource for checking news. x) Avoid unlisted or private limited companies or industries that do not have regular cash flows (engineering, real estate, infrastructure, capital goods etc).

MANAGING GREED- Chit Funds and other pickpocketing schemes

The latest financial scam where people lost money (the Saradha Chit fund of West Bengal) proves just two points: i) There is still a lot of financial illiteracy; and ii) Those who are literate find it difficult to curb greed. We can assume that some of the investors had no idea about anything other than bank deposits and were simply lured by high profile selling tactics of the neighbourhood agent and lost their moneys. Surely, there will also be a large bunch, who were lured in to it by what they thought was “easy money “. Today, there are thousands of schemes floating out there that will leave you poorer. Whether it is a gold deposit scheme or a booking scheme in some real estate project or a MLM scheme or a fixed deposit scheme with fancy returns, each one of them is fraught with risks of the unknown. Almost all of them have exhausted their legitimate ways of raising money and are banking on the gullible Indian to lend them money. It is possible that a few of them may not have bad intentions. They may genuinely believe in their project which may be dependent on too many things going right and exactly as per their expectations. Let us do some logical thinking. If a bank deposit can give us, say, nine percent per annum for a three year period, some else can give us nor more than two or three percentage points more than that. If they are willing to offer you, say, eighteen percent per annum, it means that after all expenses; they should be able to earn more than that. There are very few businesses that earn this kind of money and those businesses are unlikely to need or borrow money. This has to be your starting point. Find out what are they going to do with the money they take from you. Often, you will get stories of your money getting invested in land or property. This is the biggest risk and there are no guarantees that the price will rise and one can sell it in time to repay any money. The other thing you will notice is that none of these borrowers and fund raisers will tell you how many legal and illegal entities they run, what are the financials, who are the directors etc. It generally means that the only business of the borrower is to raise money and keep on doing it till the whole thing collapses. And most of them will never give you a full picture of who the promoter is, what his background is, what success he has achieved in any domain of business etc. There are salesmen who push these schemes at you. They get very high commission rates. They may be called agents or some such designations. Apparently this is the only income that person may be having. If someone comes, ask him directly about what commission he gets. You will never hear the truth and get some evasive answers. Real estate bookings are another area for you to lose money. The company, again, will not show you any balance sheet. One plot of land in a far away location, perhaps one model house and no government permissions in place but asking you for money is another sure road to losing money. Most likely, you will end up with a piece of land that will never be saleable at any price. Similarly, booking apartments is another high risk game. I had personally booked an apartment in a property called “Estancia” by a builder called Arun Excello near Chennai. The handing over is delayed by five years and what appreciation I hoped for is a mirage. The best of builders cannot withstand a slow down or a delay. So if you are investing in property, go for ready property in prime location. I would urge people to make a checklist of a few questions they should ask before they invest money: i) Who are the promoters? Any track record? ; ii) Their latest accounts are a must; iii) What are group companies? Any record of success? iv) What business is it that earns more money than the interest it promises to pay you? v) Why can it not get money from a bank and is approaching you? vi) Is there a way to know how much money they have raised? Will raise? vii) What is the entity that is borrowing? If it is not a listed company, the chances of losing are so much higher. Not because listing gives any guarantee but because there are some regulators and there is disclosure. viii) Do not lend or invest money in proprietary, partnership, cooperative or private limited entities. ix) Never invest money in a scheme where the name of the borrowing entity is not disclosed; x) If they accept cash, stay away. You will lose your money for sure. xi) Invest only if it is a scheme like a FD or Debenture that has a credit rating in the public domain xii) Be sceptical about everything and everyone when it comes to money. Ideally, one should keep away from all these schemes designed to transfer wealth from your pockets to someone else’s.

An appeal to give for education- Someone needs your financial help

A request to GIVE. I do not know this charity, but somewhere a feeling that the person is doing a good thing. All of us wish to do something, but do not have the time. Many of us can give some money but not time. Here is a person who is taking the effort to do something and so I think we could help him with money. Not too much. His current project for a primary school in a village seems to be 250K. If I send a thousand rupees, it is perhaps not too much. A dinner with friends sets me back more. So an appeal. I have no clue about the bonafides. But I am going ahead in my small way. I hope the mission succeeds. Nothing like supporting the cause of basic education. Here is the mail I got: Contribute to set up a Primary School in village Mahabadia Ahambhumika is aiming to set up a Primary School in village Mahabadia,distt.Bhopal.We have been wrking in this village since last 3 years.The people of the village work as daily wage labourer in brick kilns,construction sites and stone quarries.This village don’t have any school therefore,the children don’t go to school except few ones.We have an informal literacy centre namely Mehak ( Fragrance) in this village where we impart basic edcution of Hindi,Mathematics and English ( recently started ) to 52 girl children daily ( except on Monday) for 2 hours.We have realised that 2 hours duration is enough time to educate the children properly.Besides that there are many more children in the village who needs to be edcuated.In view of above we have decided to start a Primary school for the children of this village. The school we are aiming at will provide education to all the children of the village.There are more than 150 children in this village. Our plan is to start the Primary School from the month of July 2013 and we need to raise Rs.2.50 lacs for this purpose by the end of May 2013. In past you have supported us whole heartedly therefore, I am requesting you without any hesitation to contribute for setting up a primary school.Please feel free to contribue any amount as per your convenience.Please drop a mail once you decide the amount you will be contributing, mentioning the time by when you will be contributing.( Please try to contribute before the month of June 2013).Drop a mail to us once you transfer the amount with transcation number. You may further help us by spreading words to the people you know who may help us for this cause. Below is the banking profile of Ahambhumika. *Online Bank Transfer: AHAM BHUMIKA SWAYAM SEVI SANSTHA, SAVINGS ACCOUNT NO. 2073101015874, IFSC Code- CNRB0002073, CANARA BANK, Branch - MAHARANA PRATAP NAGAR, BHOPAL Important: If you're doing a online transfer to our account, please send us an email with your name, address and donation amount, so that we can send you the receipt. **Account payable Cheques/ DDs in favor of – AHAM BHUMIKA SWAYAM SEVI SANSTHA, Payable at BHOPAL (M.P.) and send it by post to *Postal address to which you may send cheque for the project : Subrat Goswami Ahambhumika C/o Archaeology 3rd Floor,B-Block, G.T.B.Complex,T.T.Nagar, Bhopal-462003 (M.P.) -- With regards (Subrat ) Founder Ahambhumika http://ahambhumika.org http://anganwadikids.blogspot.com (M) 98264 72718

SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS- PART TWO- DISTINCTION BETWEEN SAVINGS & INVESTMENTS

(FOR the first part go to :http://frustrationsamalgamated.blogspot.in/2013/03/from-savings-to-investment-financial.html) Having started off on our ‘savings’ plan, let us understand what kind of savings instruments one can use and for what purpose, duration etc. i) Savings accounts in banks- Keep enough to tackle a month’s outgo and some emergency needs depending on your situation. You can always keep a ‘sweep’ account that ensures highest return: ii) Liquid funds are good if you need money in two to three years time; iii) Fixed deposits and bonds are good if you need the money after three to five years; iv) FMPs of mutual funds are a better option than fixed deposits from safety as well as tax impact is concerned; v) Savings instruments will never be subject to market risks. Yes the can have risk of default, so better not to chase high returns and sacrifice on risk. vi) Savings has to be in a form that you completely understand. Cannot be an insurance policy or ULIP. I have a different take on financial planning. I ask each of you to write down what you earn now and what can be spared for savings and investments. From there, one can take a call on what is achievable and what is not. There is no point first saying that this is what I need and then go about finding the money. It may click once in a way, but more often, you will end up taking risks that you can ill afford to. For example, if I can spare, say, five thousand rupees a month for two years, it could accumulate to around Rs.1.40 lakh at approximately eight percent per annum. So, I can plan to spend around 1.40 lakh at that point in time. However, if I decide first that I want to spend around Rs.2 lakh at the end of two years and cannot spare more than 5K each month it would need a return of more than 15% p.a.! So I would have to search for something with that kind of potential. Alas, there will be only uncertain avenues that risk losing principal also. In short, first decide what you can spare and fix your aspirations in the realm of possible. Do not get carried away by the crazy advertisements that drive you to aspire for the moon and then choose a road that will destroy your wealth and health. All other schemes are ‘investments’. Returns would be unpredictable and will have risks attached to them, with the potential of higher returns. It is common to say that equities deliver fifteen percent compound returns. However, in the last five years, it has delivered zero. You cannot plan to meet a certain financial outlay with any ‘investment’- whether it be equities, land or gold or anything else. They are subject to factors beyond your control. After the savings plan, I would surely look at ‘spending’ money on some medical insurance. Life insurance is something that you need so long as you have commitments or financial dependents. Once you cross that hurdle, stop the policy. Today, a term policy with payout only on death, costs less than medical insurance. Do not fall in to the trap of thinking that there has to be a ‘return’ from a life insurance payout. There are better investment options available. Investments are financial outlays, where the final result is not predictable in terms of value. It is subject to market forces and business cycles. The outlays could be on equities, real estate, precious metals or commodities or currencies. These do not trade at predictable prices and there is no guaranteed return. Once these are covered, you might like to start ‘investing’. For equities, mutual funds (go for either large cap diversified or an index fund) are a good option. To get the best out of equities, it is important to keep investing regularly and not just in one go. Of course, that strategy can work, if you are capable of picking stocks at their lows or are able to time the markets. If you cannot, then the SIP route is the best. One more thing to invest could be a second house or a plot of land, depending on each one’s appetite. I have covered this in one of my earlier pieces. Investments are financial outlays that over time can give you a chance to change your lifestyle or leave behind an inheritance. Investments over time can give you a new goal or a desire to be fulfilled. Investments go to build wealth. A second home, a plot of land, stocks, gold etc. are not things you buy to meet some future goals, but to create your portfolio of wealth. Once you get here, your concerns are more towards preservation of wealth than rapid appreciation. Do not be in a hurry to acquire assets for wealth creation. Savings simply takes care of your normal needs over your lifespan. So, savings are the first step. Savings will take you to a goal with reasonable degree of certainty. Investments will change your state of well being.